由於工作太忙的關係, 良久沒有更新此網頁, 十分抱歉.
簡短來說, 瑞年國際(2010)現價(0.81-0.85)出現千載難逢的投機或投資機會. 短線可望0.9水平, 中線可望1.2水平, 長線可達2-4元, 現價有成為5偣股的潛力.
本人有長期追踪此股, 主席王福才甚具商業頭腦, 有謀略, 行業亦有發展潛力. 但公司CFO唔係太掂, 太過短視, 反應太慢.
空方報告好多都係段章取義, 誤解從出, 但有D也點出投資者的顧慮. 本人相信基本上公司財務報表係無問題的, 意思係無違反法律. 但由於公司係一個distributor model, 本人分析盈利時一般會打大折, 因有潛在關連交易風險 (空方報告也有指出). 但股價其實一早已反映些因素, PE得2偣, 空方報告其實無新料, 現價係反映過度.
同公司差唔多ge同業湯臣倍健係大陸上巿巿值係瑞年的接近20倍, 有相當大的mispricing.
公司現金加資產點都有值20幾億, 安全邊際很高.
2015年12月28日 星期一
2014年2月4日 星期二
中科礦業分析(985)
中科礦業(985)現價0.059, 極度低殘. 之前賣資產有30億現金收番, 已值0.11元每股... 但大股東竟然一仙都無派發, 而係慢慢諗計將公司現金掏空, 做出種種利自己而不利其他小股東的行為...
若無任何改善, 匿名俠呼籲所有巴打係股東大會上投反對票!!!!!
其實大股東及老友加埋持股唔够24%, 如小股東團結便很容易成事! 另外, 之前已有對沖基金入股密謀推翻大股東.
若無任何改善, 匿名俠呼籲所有巴打係股東大會上投反對票!!!!!
其實大股東及老友加埋持股唔够24%, 如小股東團結便很容易成事! 另外, 之前已有對沖基金入股密謀推翻大股東.
2013年10月17日 星期四
VIPSHOP (VIPS) IS GROSSLY OVERVALUED
Currently VIPShop is trading at $72, an increase of over 161%% in the past 6 months. This is a bit ridiculous as there are really not much changes in basic company fundamentals for this company.
The current share price already reflects the most optimal scenario this company will ever have. At this price level, it has really very limited upside. However, the downside risks are significant for this company.
From my extensive knowledge of the Internet space in China, VIPShop is close to its maximum growth potential. Past explosive historical growth is actually due to its low base, which is a mathematical fact for almost all early-stage growth companies. It is as simple as that, an increase from $1 to $10 commands 900% growth rate. Nevertheless, I will analyze its business in several parts as follows:
1. Revenue Potential
VIPShop is close to reaching its full scale. I expect 20-30% further expansion at maximum in the coming few years based on current quarter revenue annualized. The revenue may expand to about $2 billion at some point by around 2016. I don't see much further growth potential beyond that and its revenue may even start declining due to increasing competition from big players. The current website is already too crowded, gradually damaging user experience.
2. Margin Contraction
As with all e-retailers these days, most players are having decreasing margins due to ever keener competitions. VIPShop will not be an exception. VIPShop will have decreasingly bargain power with suppliers and may have to incur more marketing costs due to ever increasing competition. Many e-retailers are having negative net margins these days!
3. Possible Future Inventory Writedown
Just like many Chinese shoes and apparel manufacturers/retailers, many of their past profits are lacking quality. For those companies, a shipment to distributors count as sales but eventually many of them have to be bought back as excess inventories from distributors. The consequence of this is to create large profit in early years and then follow big some large inventory writedowns. Similar thing may happen for VIPShop if VIPShop cannot send the unsold stocks back to the supplier in the future, which is possible.
4. Competition
VIPShop is just a simple website that costs fewer than $1K to replicate in China. It has very low entry barriers. There are tons of sites like this in China, such as Shangpin, Jiapin, etc. I think the biggest competition will come from existing huge incumbent players such as 360Buy, TMall and Tencent. They may just tweak their existing platform to conduct similar flash sales function.
5. Industry Trends
The current hype of VIPShop is partly due to the industry inventory glut of the shoes and apparel industry in China. But the industry is already near the bottom and some segments such as Sports apparel and shoes are already experiencing a slight recovering after some painful destocking activities. It will likely be more difficult for VIPShop to source the products in the future.
6. Consumer Reaction
VIPShop sells a few premium brands, but most items listed are actually crappy brands that trying to sell at a high price. Chinese consumers may not be aware of this at first. But gradually I believe they will find out about it and stay away from VIPShop.
I think in the long run, VIPShop may generate $50 million net profit per year, which is not a bad figure for a website. Applying a 10x muliple, I think it's fair value stands at $500 million, which is about $9 dollars per share, in line with IPO pricing. There is substantial downside risk for this stock!!!
The current share price already reflects the most optimal scenario this company will ever have. At this price level, it has really very limited upside. However, the downside risks are significant for this company.
From my extensive knowledge of the Internet space in China, VIPShop is close to its maximum growth potential. Past explosive historical growth is actually due to its low base, which is a mathematical fact for almost all early-stage growth companies. It is as simple as that, an increase from $1 to $10 commands 900% growth rate. Nevertheless, I will analyze its business in several parts as follows:
1. Revenue Potential
VIPShop is close to reaching its full scale. I expect 20-30% further expansion at maximum in the coming few years based on current quarter revenue annualized. The revenue may expand to about $2 billion at some point by around 2016. I don't see much further growth potential beyond that and its revenue may even start declining due to increasing competition from big players. The current website is already too crowded, gradually damaging user experience.
2. Margin Contraction
As with all e-retailers these days, most players are having decreasing margins due to ever keener competitions. VIPShop will not be an exception. VIPShop will have decreasingly bargain power with suppliers and may have to incur more marketing costs due to ever increasing competition. Many e-retailers are having negative net margins these days!
3. Possible Future Inventory Writedown
Just like many Chinese shoes and apparel manufacturers/retailers, many of their past profits are lacking quality. For those companies, a shipment to distributors count as sales but eventually many of them have to be bought back as excess inventories from distributors. The consequence of this is to create large profit in early years and then follow big some large inventory writedowns. Similar thing may happen for VIPShop if VIPShop cannot send the unsold stocks back to the supplier in the future, which is possible.
4. Competition
VIPShop is just a simple website that costs fewer than $1K to replicate in China. It has very low entry barriers. There are tons of sites like this in China, such as Shangpin, Jiapin, etc. I think the biggest competition will come from existing huge incumbent players such as 360Buy, TMall and Tencent. They may just tweak their existing platform to conduct similar flash sales function.
5. Industry Trends
The current hype of VIPShop is partly due to the industry inventory glut of the shoes and apparel industry in China. But the industry is already near the bottom and some segments such as Sports apparel and shoes are already experiencing a slight recovering after some painful destocking activities. It will likely be more difficult for VIPShop to source the products in the future.
6. Consumer Reaction
VIPShop sells a few premium brands, but most items listed are actually crappy brands that trying to sell at a high price. Chinese consumers may not be aware of this at first. But gradually I believe they will find out about it and stay away from VIPShop.
I think in the long run, VIPShop may generate $50 million net profit per year, which is not a bad figure for a website. Applying a 10x muliple, I think it's fair value stands at $500 million, which is about $9 dollars per share, in line with IPO pricing. There is substantial downside risk for this stock!!!
2013年7月24日 星期三
中國金石 (1380) 動向
好耐都無時間寫BLOG了...
一年多時間, 中國金石(1380)已被前大股東掏空, 將資金据為己有, 同時走埋佬....
小股民真係慘慘慘.............
前大股東作奸犯科, 明目張膽從公司偷錢, 香港警方及內地公安應儘快把此人逮捕, 希望或許追番少少錢.... 但係似乎暫時無下文....
當時公司其他人扮演什麼角色? 多宗交易付款對方是否友好人士? 公司秘書, 行政總裁, 財務總監應否付上刑事或民事責任?
被人偷走的錢, 恐怕好難追得番.... 小股民點算? 或許找保薦人花旗及核數佬安永索償? (涉及披露不全, 有意瞞騙)
亦希望傳媒朋友多加關注, 多加報導... 希望有關執法機關加快揖兇!
一年多時間, 中國金石(1380)已被前大股東掏空, 將資金据為己有, 同時走埋佬....
小股民真係慘慘慘.............
前大股東作奸犯科, 明目張膽從公司偷錢, 香港警方及內地公安應儘快把此人逮捕, 希望或許追番少少錢.... 但係似乎暫時無下文....
當時公司其他人扮演什麼角色? 多宗交易付款對方是否友好人士? 公司秘書, 行政總裁, 財務總監應否付上刑事或民事責任?
被人偷走的錢, 恐怕好難追得番.... 小股民點算? 或許找保薦人花旗及核數佬安永索償? (涉及披露不全, 有意瞞騙)
亦希望傳媒朋友多加關注, 多加報導... 希望有關執法機關加快揖兇!
2012年4月1日 星期日
中國金石(1380) 新聞
唔同報紙報導完全唔同tone...........
【香港成报】
中国金石（1380）公布截至去年底全年业绩，期内转亏为盈，赚4,890.4万元人民币（下同）。虽然中国金石表现理想，惟该股股价昨日却表现差劲，跌30.357%或0.170元，收市报0.390元。公司董事长兼首席执行官陈涛表示，公司录得盈利，而且毛利率高，对股价急挫表示莫名奇妙及无法理解。
中国金石去年收入为2.89亿元，较2010年大幅增长42.8倍；盈利4,890.4万元，去年则为亏损2,362.3万元；毛利率达60.14%，每股基本盈利为2.58分。
对於董事局並不建议派发末期息，陈涛表示，集团旗下矿山今年仍然需要投入资金，公司或会考虑於明年派息。她又指出，根据情况，公司不排除会在短期内进行回购。
陈涛表示，公司今年资本开支约2亿元，主要是用作设备维修及工地费用等。她又指出，现时为进行併购欧洲资源的好时机；公司在未来将会以「进军海外，主打国内」为经营方针。她又透露，公司现阶段正在海外物色白色大理石矿，快的话今年之内将会完成相关交易。
被问及公司今年会否进行融资，陈涛回应指出，本港融资方便，如有需要会进行融资。
【明報專訊】
昨天股價大跌30％的大理石生產商中國金石（1380），周四晚公布業績扭虧為盈，賺4890萬元（人民幣，下同）。盈利中包括4391萬元的利息收入，原來中國金石把近5億元的資金，拿作「放數」，賺取月息最多達3厘的高息，資金用途與去年初招股書內所言明顯不同。
不計放債收益 本業不能賺錢
翻查中國金石去年3月招股時的招股書，公司集資淨額12.87億元，其中七成會用作興建張家壩礦山的主要生產設施及大理石板材加工設施，兩成用作建立經銷渠道和網絡、一成用作收購及開發額外大理石儲量。公司當時指集資所得在不可即時使用時，會放於中、港銀行計息帳戶。
但從周四晚公布的業績所見，金石在去年底現金及已抵押存款只剩下2.3億元，反而有委託貸款3.1億元，及1.7億元作結構性存款，賺取月息1.5至3厘的超高利息。業績內有交代上述委託貸款及結構性存款皆已在近日悉數連本帶息收回。但事件反映中國金石在集資款項未有用途時，把資金拿作「放數」。
中國金石的大理石礦場去年開始投產，令營業額按年大升42.8倍，至2.89億元。 但若不計及上述放數的利息收入，公司差不多不能賺錢。花旗的報告指金石第4季產量按季下跌29％，至5184立方米，相信與房地產建築下滑有關，令金石的盈利較花旗預期為差。花旗稍後會檢討對金石的盈利預測。
【香港成报】
中国金石（1380）公布截至去年底全年业绩，期内转亏为盈，赚4,890.4万元人民币（下同）。虽然中国金石表现理想，惟该股股价昨日却表现差劲，跌30.357%或0.170元，收市报0.390元。公司董事长兼首席执行官陈涛表示，公司录得盈利，而且毛利率高，对股价急挫表示莫名奇妙及无法理解。
中国金石去年收入为2.89亿元，较2010年大幅增长42.8倍；盈利4,890.4万元，去年则为亏损2,362.3万元；毛利率达60.14%，每股基本盈利为2.58分。
对於董事局並不建议派发末期息，陈涛表示，集团旗下矿山今年仍然需要投入资金，公司或会考虑於明年派息。她又指出，根据情况，公司不排除会在短期内进行回购。
陈涛表示，公司今年资本开支约2亿元，主要是用作设备维修及工地费用等。她又指出，现时为进行併购欧洲资源的好时机；公司在未来将会以「进军海外，主打国内」为经营方针。她又透露，公司现阶段正在海外物色白色大理石矿，快的话今年之内将会完成相关交易。
被问及公司今年会否进行融资，陈涛回应指出，本港融资方便，如有需要会进行融资。
【明報專訊】
昨天股價大跌30％的大理石生產商中國金石（1380），周四晚公布業績扭虧為盈，賺4890萬元（人民幣，下同）。盈利中包括4391萬元的利息收入，原來中國金石把近5億元的資金，拿作「放數」，賺取月息最多達3厘的高息，資金用途與去年初招股書內所言明顯不同。
不計放債收益 本業不能賺錢
翻查中國金石去年3月招股時的招股書，公司集資淨額12.87億元，其中七成會用作興建張家壩礦山的主要生產設施及大理石板材加工設施，兩成用作建立經銷渠道和網絡、一成用作收購及開發額外大理石儲量。公司當時指集資所得在不可即時使用時，會放於中、港銀行計息帳戶。
但從周四晚公布的業績所見，金石在去年底現金及已抵押存款只剩下2.3億元，反而有委託貸款3.1億元，及1.7億元作結構性存款，賺取月息1.5至3厘的超高利息。業績內有交代上述委託貸款及結構性存款皆已在近日悉數連本帶息收回。但事件反映中國金石在集資款項未有用途時，把資金拿作「放數」。
中國金石的大理石礦場去年開始投產，令營業額按年大升42.8倍，至2.89億元。 但若不計及上述放數的利息收入，公司差不多不能賺錢。花旗的報告指金石第4季產量按季下跌29％，至5184立方米，相信與房地產建築下滑有關，令金石的盈利較花旗預期為差。花旗稍後會檢討對金石的盈利預測。
2012年3月29日 星期四
中國金石(1380)
匿名俠用左30分鐘左右再仔細睇左下份公佈, 除委託貸款及購股權開支太高之外, 無明顯異常. 現價0.44, 8億幾巿值, 但上市集資左10億現金, 石礦應存在, 經營也應賺錢. 如果大股東唔"老千", 照產能增長計, 股價在2年後應值2元以上. 匿名俠覺得值得一博.
中國金石(01380)業績公布
同匿名俠之前預測5000萬左右基本刎合!
中國金石<01380.HK>公布2011年度，收入2.89億人民幣(下同)，按年增加43倍；毛利1.74億元。錄得純利4890萬元，每股盈利2.58分，相對上年度蝕2362萬元。不派末期息。
不過, 在仔細睇多5秒, 有7億元現金在2011年下半年不翼而飛!!!!!!!!!!!!!
感覺或許開始有D"老千"...................
不過, 在仔細睇多2分鐘, 公司解釋如下:
截至2011年12月31日止年 度，投資活動現金流出淨額為人民幣799,805,000元。年內投資活動的現金流出主要包括( i )購置物業、廠房及設備為數人民幣108,790,000元，( i i )存入結構性存款及委託貸款分 別為數人民幣170,247,000元及人民幣310,000,000元，( i i i )存入為數人民幣– 26 –107,196,000元作為抵 押銀行借款的按金，( iv) 購 買採礦權為數人民幣39,109,000元，及(v)人民幣6,000,000元及人民幣13,500,000元分 別用於 收購北川力達的100 %股權及廣東嘉鵬建設的49 %股權。
委託貸款??? 有D可疑?
不過解釋勉強可能過到關.........
中國金石<01380.HK>公布2011年度，收入2.89億人民幣(下同)，按年增加43倍；毛利1.74億元。錄得純利4890萬元，每股盈利2.58分，相對上年度蝕2362萬元。不派末期息。
不過, 在仔細睇多5秒, 有7億元現金在2011年下半年不翼而飛!!!!!!!!!!!!!
感覺或許開始有D"老千"...................
不過, 在仔細睇多2分鐘, 公司解釋如下:
截至2011年12月31日止年 度，投資活動現金流出淨額為人民幣799,805,000元。年內投資活動的現金流出主要包括( i )購置物業、廠房及設備為數人民幣108,790,000元，( i i )存入結構性存款及委託貸款分 別為數人民幣170,247,000元及人民幣310,000,000元，( i i i )存入為數人民幣– 26 –107,196,000元作為抵 押銀行借款的按金，( iv) 購 買採礦權為數人民幣39,109,000元，及(v)人民幣6,000,000元及人民幣13,500,000元分 別用於 收購北川力達的100 %股權及廣東嘉鵬建設的49 %股權。
委託貸款??? 有D可疑?
不過解釋勉強可能過到關.........
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